The United States and Iran announced that they have reached a peace deal. Much is still unclear about the agreement. But it appears that the deal would create a situation between the two countries very similar to the way things were before the war started. The agreement is expected to be signed on Friday.
On Sunday, the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire deal that could lead to the end of the war between the two countries. The document, called a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MOU) is not a final peace deal. Instead, it’s a general outline of how the two countries plan to reach a lasting peace. The MOU will be officially signed in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday.
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Exact details of the agreement are unclear, and both sides are describing the deal in slightly different ways. But in general, the deal is believed to:
- End the fighting between the US and Iran for at least 60 days
- Open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing gas and oil to pass through again
- Open talks on limiting Iran’s nuclear program and on lifting sanctions against Iran
US & Israel vs Iran – Months of Fighting and Talking
When the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, Mr. Trump believed the US would defeat Iran quickly and easily. But the US had no easy solution when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing problems worldwide. Roughly 20% of the world’s gas and oil pass through this waterway.
Since a ceasefire in April, the two sides have gone back and forth between peace talks and conflict, with serious attacks happening just last week. The lack of trust between the two sides makes many people wonder whether this ceasefire will last.
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Iran’s greatest strength in the war was that it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas pass through this important waterway. Iran is now expected to open the strait, and the US will lift its blockade. But it could still take months to solve oil shortages worldwide.
With fighting ended, Iran is now expected to open the strait and remove the mines it placed there. The US will lift the blockade it placed on Iran’s ports. It will take time, but that should allow ships to begin using the strait again. Still, it could take months to solve oil shortages worldwide, and bring prices down again.
But the current MOU doesn’t resolve some of the more difficult problems. The most important is probably limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Under the MOU, this issue is expected to be resolved over the next 60 days. But talks on limiting Irans nuclear program have been going on for years.
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Iran has demanded that all of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon must end. But since the MOU is only between the US and Iran, it’s not clear how a peace deal would prevent Israel and Hezbollah (an Iran-supported militant group in Lebanon) from fighting. Israel, which has taken over large amounts of territory in south Lebanon in recent months, says it will not pull out of Lebanon.
Many people in Israel are deeply unhappy about the deal, which does not resolve many of Israel’s big concerns. This includes making sure Iran isn’t a threat to Israel. The US and Israel began the war on Iran together, but now relations between the two allies are very tense.
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Many people in Israel are deeply unhappy about the deal. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seen above on Monday, said that Mr. Trump was leading the deal and it was “his decision”. But he made it clear that Israel would work to keep its “freedom of action”.
It’s also not clear when and how sanctions on Iran might be lifted. Around $24 billion of Iran’s money has been frozen, and Iran hopes to get that money back.
Mr. Trump and Iran are both celebrating the MOU as a victory. But Iran has lost thousands of soldiers and civilians, and suffered widespread damage. And the current deal does not achieve most of the goals that Mr. Trump set. Instead, it may leave Iran in a stronger position than before, and with its nuclear program still up for discussion.
Note: Most updates on the situation in the Middle East will be found on the following page from now on: War in the Middle East.