Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine —(Map)
Tensions are still extremely high over the possibility that Russia might invade Ukraine. The United States (US) and NATO have warned of a possible invasion for months. Now, the US says an attack could come in days. But a last-minute effort by France could lead to more talks.
Russia says it has no plans to invade Ukraine. But US military experts believe Russia has roughly 190,000 soldiers placed along different sides of Ukraine’s borders. On Friday, US President Joe Biden said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade.
![Possible routes of alleged Russian invasion of Ukraine (January 2022). Map depicts two slightly different plans published by German Bild ([1]) and US-based CSIS](https://newsforkids.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/1024px-possible-routes-of-alleged-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-january-2022-500x351.png)
(Source: Homoatrox [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons.)
Background: Ukraine and Russia
After World War II, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union (USSR). The USSR was made of Russia and many smaller countries. Ukraine became independent in 1991, but many people in the country still have close ties to Russia.
Russia has already invaded Ukraine once. In 2014, Russia invaded and took control of Crimea, a peninsula in southern Ukraine. In response, the US and many European countries put sanctions on Russia, but the sanctions haven’t had much effect.
Also in 2014, with Russian support, two areas of Ukraine claimed they were independent of Ukraine. These areas – Donetsk and Luhansk, known together as “Donbas” – have strong ties to Russia. There has been fighting in and near Donbas since 2014, with Russia giving military support to the rebels.
Why is Russia Doing This?
It’s impossible to know all of Mr. Putin’s reasons for this military buildup. But it’s clear that Russia feels threatened by the power of the West.
Ukraine would like to join NATO, a defense agreement between the US and many European countries. Mr. Putin would like to prevent that from ever happening. Ukraine isn’t likely to join NATO soon. But the US and NATO believe that Ukraine should get to decide about its agreements – not Russia.
(Source: Based on work by Starfire25 [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons.)
Over the last weeks and months, US and European leaders have made many efforts to end the tense situation by talking with Mr. Putin and others representing Russia.
The most positive result came from a long phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Mr. Putin on Sunday. Mr. Macron said Mr. Putin agreed to make an intense effort to resolve the crisis through talks. The US says it’s willing to talk “until the moment an invasion begins.”
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Over the last weeks and months, Western leaders have made many efforts to resolve the situation by talking with Mr. Putin. French President Emmanuel Macron (above) said Mr. Putin agreed on Sunday to make an intense effort to resolve the crisis through talks.
Though the US is willing to talk, many people in the US government still expect an invasion.
Increased Activity
Recently, there’s been a lot of activity in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian-supported rebels have been firing heavy weapons at Ukranian-controlled areas. Many people who live in the Donbas area have evacuated to Russia. Many experts believe Russia wants to make it look like Ukraine has attacked these rebel-held areas, since that could give Russia an excuse to invade.
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Many people who live in the Donbas area have evacuated to Russia. Many experts believe Russia wants to make it look like Ukraine has attacked these rebel-held areas, since that could give Russia an excuse to invade. Above, people ready to get on a train to Russia.
Last week, Russia claimed it was pulling some soldiers back from the border. But Western countries say that instead of soldiers leaving, more soldiers were brought in. Last week, many important computer systems in Ukraine were hit by a cyberattack.
On February 8, Russia’s Navy brought six landing ships into the Baltic Sea and blocked important shipping lanes. Landing ships are designed to deliver soldiers and military equipment onto land.
On February 10, about 30,000 Russian soldiers joined with soldiers from Belarus for practice battles near the Belarus border with Ukraine. These “military exercises” were supposed to last 10 days. Russia said its soldiers would return home afterward. But yesterday, Russia said the military exercises would continue.
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About 30,000 Russian soldiers joined Belarus soldiers for practice battles near the Belarus border with Ukraine. These “military exercises” were supposed to last 10 days. Yesterday, Russia said the exercises would continue. Above, military vehicles prepare for the exercises.
The US and other NATO members don’t plan to fight if Russia invades. But they have been giving Ukraine more and more weapons.
In spite of NATO’s military support for Ukraine, Western leaders agree that if Russia invades, they will respond with heavy sanctions. They hope that announcing these severe punishments will prevent Russia from invading. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says the sanctions should begin now, and not wait until after Russia invades.
Note: Though no one knows what will happen in Ukraine, the situation is serious. Thinking about problems like this can be confusing and scary. If this article brings up questions or worries for you, be sure to discuss them with an adult you trust.
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